Study predicts high jobs losses in some NSW suburbs
Wednesday March 18, 2009
A study on demographics and social structures in suburbs across the nation identified those regions which may experience a rise in jobs losses above the average expected for the same time period. The main urban regions identified were Sydney, Newcastle, Canberra and Wollongong.
The study comes after the Federal Governments forecasted that the national unemployment rate may reach 7 per cent by next year.
The study analysed data of different regions and suburbs based on the average age, university and TAFE enrollment levels, popularity of part time or casual jobs and the concentration of jobs Sydney that are dependent on vulnerable industries such as construction or manufacturing.
Specific areas predicted to be hit hardest by jobs losses are those that have a majority of dual-income families of causal employment and jobs with a record of debt.
Areas identified as being more vulnerable to jobs losses were found to have suburbs either in or nearby that would be considered affluent, but more exposed to jobs losses. In fact, geographically speaking, more often than not high-risk suburbs were located right next to low-risk suburbs, reflecting the city's residential structure.
Some regions listed that may experience higher job Sydney and NSW losses:
Albury, Wollongong, Newcastle, Tarro, Telarah, Argenton, Holmesville, Warrawon, North Wagga Wagga, Cringila, Tacoma, Toowoon Bay, Kellyville, Rocky Point, Haymarket and The Rocks.
Many of these suburbs vary in demographic structures and yet they are all dependent on industries which aren't expected to survive the recession unscathed such as those made up of part-time or causal jobs or sectors that are contracting.
Areas that boast of an above average income with low rates of casual jobs and high education levels may remain relatively low-risk when it comes to losing jobs Sydney such as the inner-city, eastern and lower-north suburbs.
However, jobs Sydney may manage to avoid large pockets of job losses and unemployment unlike Melbourne which is due to Melbourne's heavy reliance on the heavy industry and manufacturing sectors for jobs.